Nov 6, 2022

$2,110,835,174.39 – The amount of IE this cycle
$1,432,070,184.32 – Amount of IE since Labor Day
$219,616,341.24 – Amount of IE last week vs $237,862,132.04 the week before
$379,831,859.14 – Amount Republican Super PACs SLF and CLF have spent since Labor Day
$259,342,093.82 – Amount Democratics Super PACs SMP and HMP have spent since Labor Day
$120,489,765.32 – Delta SLF and CLF have spent over SMP and HMP since Labor Day

Pennsylvania far exceeds all other states with IE spend across all races with $294,952,153.03 this cycle.‍

Spend of the Week

$8,252,613.41 – Amount spent by groups supporting Fetterman in the last week. Democrats spent more money last week supporting Fetterman than they did opposing any Republican candidate across the country. This is a massive tell.

Big Spenders of the week

Democrats outspent Republicans in the House and for the first time in the Senate

NRCC outspent McCarthys Congressional Leadership Fund

Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity continue to be in the weekly Top 10 spenders and are the only groups to do so not aligned with a candidate, committee, or leadership.

Democratic House Majority PAC outspent EVERYBODY, by double. $49M in a week is a huge number, so big its 50% larger than any weekly spend HMP has done to date. Which raises the question, if you are able to drop $49M in a week, why do you wait until the very last week to do it?

House Breakdown

Once again there is zero overlap in the top 10 races where the Dems are spending money and the top 10 where Republicans are spending. In a telling sign that we covered last week, the Democrats aren’t on offense in any seat of their top 10 spends and are spending to stay alive in the seats like NJ-5 and NJ-11.  Dems spent $4M last week against the Republican in NJ-11.

Conversely, Republicans 10 biggest expenditures are all spent to take over Dem held seats.

Senate Breakdown

Senate is so awash in money its hard to see anything anymore.  One interesting anomaly that showed up this week is DEM Super PAC positive spend. As we have mentioned before, Super PACs by nature largely spend in opposition to candidates and do the dirty work campaigns don’t want to do, thus leaving the positive spend to campaigns.  This week we saw some substantial positive spend pop up.

$8,252,613.41 was spent to support Fetterman in PA
$2,729,024.58 spent to support Sen. Warnock in GA
$2,622,943.01 spent to support Mandela Barnes in WI
$1,720,548.14 spent to support Sen. Kelly in AZ
$1,637,545.10 spent to support Sen. Cortez Masto in NV

Only two Republicans had positive spend top $!M Masters and Oz. This is an indication Dems believe their candidates have public perception issues they are working to correct in the final days.

$378,546.72 spent in all of CO last week
$4,699,499.13 spent in WA
$5,164,769.75 spent in NH

Clearly the money doesn’t believe the Colorado Senate race has come online.  $4.6M in Washington doesn’t feel real either. $5.1M in a week in NH is real money.  Schumer’s Senate Majority PAC came back in with $2.5M to oppose Republican Bolduc, and The Sentinel Action Fund came back with $1.2M to oppose Hassan.

Races

Pennsylvania

$30,442,412.07

Arizona

$14,672,321.88

Georgia

$14,566,858.03

Wisconsin

$12,427,367.24

Nevada

$9,540,650.23

North Carolina

$7,729,608.14

Ohio

$5,360,628.63

New Hampshire

$5,164,769.75

These numbers are being generated by the 527tracker, a data platform developed by Perspective Strategies that aggregates, analyzes, and alerts to all federal Super PAC spending in real time. If these types of numbers or analysis are important to you, or if you are on a campaign and need real-time spending alerts, go check out the dashboard.  It is free with no CC required thru Election Day.‍

As always, this information intended to provide a broader perspective what is influencing DC with the hope of allowing for better hedging and decision making. These numbers are from the last week unless otherwise noted.

And happy to add others. Let us know if there are others who would like to receive it.