Sep 1, 2023

Now it gets wild! We are post the first primary debate and labor day, campaigns and super PACs are sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars, and only 3-4 states that matter. This is going to create a deluge of spending over the next 4 months. We will see how these PACs strategies their spend but the expectation is that IA, NH, SC, and likely NV will be treated as momentum states, meaning the candidates put it all out on the table in these states in an effort to create the momentum that will energize more donors and carry them thru super Tuesday.

So what happened in August?
The First GOP Presidential Primary Debate was held on August 23rd and it was clear some of these Super PACs were spending in hopes of either get their preferred candidate on the stage, or as with Stand for America, attempt to move Nikki Haley closer to the center of the stage.  Hard to know for sure but that is the appearance, we will walk thru the numbers now. 

The numbers presented below are from August 1 to August 31

Top Lines:

$41,387,758.05 was spent on IE in total for August, more than double what was spent in July.

Best of America PAC (Gov. Burgum aligned), was the big spender of the month. Best Of America PAC, as we mentioned last month, raised $11M in the first month of existence which is a huge haul. Coupled with last months spend, they have now exceeded $11M so its clear, money is still coming in for them.
$9,312,373.00 was spent by Best of America PAC in August, but $4.5M in advertising was placed on 8/30 and set to run up to the second debate. Burgum has the prerequisite 50,000 unique donors but he does not have the 3% polling in national polls. This is the Super PAC attempting to boost his named ID and poll position to get him back on the 2nd debate stage.

Stand for America (Gov. Haley Aligned) was the second big spender of the month. 
$7,952,990.55 was spent supporting Gov. Haley. SFA placed nearly $5M in advertising on August 1st and another $2.5M the week leading into the debate. Theres plenty of reason for spending this way but the most glaring reason would be in an attempt to boost poll numbers leading into the first debate on 8/23 and hopefully move her closer to the center of the stage.

Americans for Prosperity - continues to put real money on the board.
$6,490,921.94 was spent split almost evenly between opposing Donald Trump in Alabama and opposing Biden in Florida.

Make America Great Again Inc. (Trump Aligned) is the next big spender of the month. 
$2,941,702.20 was the total spent by MAGA Inc. but surprisingly $2,428,530.28 was spent opposing Biden! Very clear sign they don't feel threatened by any of the primary opponents if they are spending their resources against Biden. $513,171.92 was spent supporting Trump.

Trust in the Mission PAC (Sen. Scott Aligned)
$2,692,430.41 was spent supporting Sen. Scott

Win It Back PAC (Trump Opposed) – As we mentioned last month, this is the new Club for Growth backed PAC that is working to convince early state primary voters to move on from Trump.
$2,309,242.72 was spent all opposing Trump.

Never Back Down (Gov. DeSantis aligned) despite their Cash On Hand and pledge to run a $100M field program, their spending is getting off to a relatively slow start but there is plenty of time to make good on that.
$2,243,122.91 was spent this month. $2,035,393.91 supporting DeSantis and $207,729.00 opposing Trump.

American Exceptionalism (Vivek Ramaswamy aligned)
$1,407,308.64 was spent supporting Vivek. For some reason a Super PAC named Drain the DC Swamp that was relatively active last cycle has spent $67K opposing Ramaswamy.

SOS PAC (Mayor Suarez aligned)
$1,254,663.54 was spent supporting Suarez.  This PAC seemed to employ a unique strategy of small dollar conduit fundraising across the country in an attempt to get Suarez the prerequisite number of donors to make the first debate stage...and it worked! Suarez actually hit the donor threshold but missed the polling threshold.

Tell It Like It Is PAC (Christie Aligned) -
$824,921.00 was spent in August, $422,960.50 supporting Christie and $401,960.50 opposing Trump

Committed to America (Pence Aligned)– 
$664,379.85 was spent supporting Pence but didnt break into the top 10 spenders of the month.

America Strong and Free PAC (Asa Hutchinson Aligned)
$479,204.96 was spent supporting Hutchinson, which was more than last month but also didn't break into the top 10 spenders.

These independent Super PACs are generally used to run the negative advertising that the candidate campaigns don't want to be associated with. We haven't yet seen the majority these groups flip to spending in opposition to other primary opponents, it has mostly been spent raising name ID and poll numbers in an attempt to influence the debate stage positioning. We will be watching to see if these presidential primary pacs switch to spending against the other candidates or stick to the positive spend on their aligned candidates.
 
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These numbers are being generated by the 527tracker, a data platform developed by Perspective Strategies that aggregates, analyzes, and alerts to all federal Super PAC spending in real time. If these types of numbers or analysis are important to you, or if you are on a campaign and need real-time spending alerts, go check out the dashboard. 

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