Let's start with the TX-23 runoff. There is a lot more to be learned than appears at first blush. If this primary runoff wasn’t on your radar, Rep. Gonzales beat Herrera by 407 votes. Herrera did very little traditional campaigning before the runoff and got outspent by over 500% (thru May 8th which is the latest numbers available.)
So how did Brandon get it so close? This race is enigmatic of the present challenge of every campaign, how do you reach the voter in a post TV world? It presents the modern question of where voters put their attention if not on TV? It's on their phone….BUT….Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok all ban political advertising, which knocks out a substantial number of places candidates can get their content in front of voters.
So, what does all this have to do with TX-23?
Tony ran a conventional campaign with traditional tactics.
Brandon, on the other hand, was a very successful YouTube content creator before he ran for office. His YouTube channel, Instagram, Twitter account, and podcasts are watched by millions of people. He produces videos that get millions of views within 24 hours of posting. He has no trouble getting his content in front of voters.
This is the distinction; Brandon has a built-in audience that comes to him for content. He didn’t have to buy his audience's time and attention the way a traditional candidate does. He was creating content that may or may not have been about his campaign (likely not), but it was engaging and authentic content that his audience wanted to share, raising his name ID and reducing the hurdles to getting his content in front of voters.
Content creators have the built-in advantage of talking directly to their audience without paying for advertising that may or may not be able to reach their audience. If our math is correct, Brandon has more social media followers than every Republican Member of Congress apart from Ted Cruz.
Two takeaways: 1. If Members of Congress want to depend (and spend) less on paid advertising, they need to grow their social media followings. 2. I expect to see more social media personalities running for office for this exact reason. The audience comes to them and trusts them; content creators have a lower barrier to message saturation.
TO NOTE: Tony had a 12-point lead heading into election day due to early voting. Herrera's voting day closed the gap to 407 votes, but massive storms rolled through west Texas last Tuesday. Did those storms prevent 408 Herrera supporters from voting? No one knows for sure, but it proves that banking those votes early is critical, it lowers election day volatility. Democrats figured this out a long time ago and for this reason, Sen. Hagerty has taken it on his shoulders to figure out a solution for the GOP.
$8,197,294.77 Total Pro Tony Gonzales
$4,490,353.97 from the Campaign
$3,219,483.77 from SuperPACs
$1,441,665.37 Total Pro Herrera
$1,376,170.83 from the Campaign.
$65,494.54 from SuperPACs
To The Numbers
All these numbers are from 5/1 to 5/31 and are SuperPAC spend only
$109,740,617.32 was spent in May.
$11,883,080.66 MAGA Inc. Trump Supporting
$9,431,581.84 opposing Biden
$2,445,298.82 supporting Trump
$10,999,923.13 United Democracy Project (AIPAC Aligned)
$3,690,572.50 opposing Jamaal Bowman
$3,265,882.08 supporting George Latimer
$2,060,409.76 opposing Brandon Herrera
It's worth noting that UDP to date has spent $46M in the last two cycles. This includes $20M in the ‘24 cycle, and almost $11M in the last month.
$7,960,312.00 American Bridge (Biden Aligned)
100% opposing Trump
$6,701,857.29 Defend American Jobs
Spending is spread out supporting Rep. Timmons (SC), John Curtis (UT), Brian Jack (GA), Riley Moore (WV), Craig Goldman (TX), Troy Downing (MT) in their primaries.
$4,661,647.00 Keystone Renewal (Dave McCormick Aligned)
$4,611,647.00 supporting McCormick
$50,000.00 opposing Casey
The rest of the spending is scattered across upcoming House primaries, etc.
Here are the rest of the numbers.
If you want to see who is spending for or against any of these candidates or where these Super PACs are spending their treasure troves, its all in the platform in real-time at www.527tracker.com. Or just reach out and we are glad to help.
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These numbers are being generated by the 527tracker, a data platform developed by Perspective Strategies that aggregates, analyzes, and alerts to all federal Super PAC spending in real time. If these types of numbers or analysis are important to you, or if you are on a campaign and need real-time spending alerts, go check out the dashboard.
